Why Is Bitcoin Going Up: The Patterns Behind Every Bull Run
- Bitcoin rallies typically follow halvings that cut new supply by 50% every four years and reduces selling pressure from miners
- Institutional adoption waves (2020 ETFs, 2017 futures, 2024 spot ETFs) each triggered major price increases of 300-500%+
- Macro economic instability drives Bitcoin demand as alternative money, especially during currency crises or inflation fears
- Supply shocks occur when long-term holders refuse to sell and create demand imbalances that push prices higher
- Media coverage creates self-reinforcing cycles where rising prices generate attention that brings new buyers, pushing prices higher
- Every Bitcoin bull run has followed similar patterns despite different triggers and narratives
The question “Why is Bitcoin going up?” appears every cycle. Bitcoin rallies 50%, 100%, 500%, and everyone wants to know why. Family and friends who ignored crypto for years suddenly ask what’s driving prices. Media outlets rush to explain the surge with whatever narrative fits the moment.
The truth is, Bitcoin rises for the same fundamental reasons during every bull run, even though the headlines change completely. The 2013 rally was explained as “China adoption.” The 2017 rally was “ICO mania and institutional futures.” The 2020-2021 rally was “inflation hedge and corporate treasuries.” The 2024-2025 rally was “ETF approval and halving effects.”
Different stories every time, but the same underlying mechanics that create the rallies. Let’s look at these mechanics together.
Table of contents
- The Bitcoin Halving Cycle and How Supply Cuts Drive Price
- How Do Institutions Make Bitcoin Price Go Up?
- How Do All-Time Highs Affect the Bitcoin Price?
- How Do Supply Shocks Affect the Prices?
- The Media Attention and Its Effect on BTC Prices
- What Separates Temporary Pumps From Real Bull Markets
- Bottom Line
The Bitcoin Halving Cycle and How Supply Cuts Drive Price
Bitcoin typically rises during specific phases of its four-year cycle. This rise is driven by:
- Supply reductions from halvings
- Growing institutional adoption
- Improving macro conditions for risk assets
- Regulatory clarity removing uncertainty
You can think of Bitcoin like gold mining, but with a twist. When gold miners dig up gold, they can keep mining at the same rate forever. With Bitcoin, the “mining” reward automatically cuts in half every four years. This is called Bitcoin halving.
Simply put, people running powerful computers (miners) verify Bitcoin transactions and secure the network. In return, they earn newly created Bitcoin. Right now, they earn 3.125 Bitcoin per block they mine. Every four years, that reward drops by half. In 2028, it’ll be 1.5625 Bitcoin. In 2032, it’ll be 0.78125 Bitcoin.
This matters because it controls how much new Bitcoin enters circulation. Before the 2024 halving, miners received 900 new Bitcoins daily. They sold most of it to pay electricity bills. After the halving, only 450 new Bitcoins appeared daily. Suddenly, there’s half as much Bitcoin being sold into the market every day.
The economics become simple: if the same number of people want to buy Bitcoin, but there’s half as much new Bitcoin available to buy, prices tend to rise. Demand stays the same, but supply is cut in half, which creates upward pressure.
| Halving Date | Block Height | Reward Before | Reward After | Price 1 Year Later | % Gain From Halving |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 | 210,000 | 50 BTC | 25 BTC | $1,000+ | +8,000% |
| July 2016 | 420,000 | 25 BTC | 12.5 BTC | $2,500+ | +280% |
| May 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 BTC | 6.25 BTC | $58,000+ | +540% |
| April 2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 BTC | 3.125 BTC | $100,000+ | +55%+ |
Every halving led to bull markets 12-18 months later, not immediately. The supply shock takes time to manifest as miner selling dries up and hodlers refuse to sell coins they accumulated cheaply during the bear market.
The pattern repeats because the mechanism is hardcoded into Bitcoin’s protocol. The next halving comes in 2028, and it will cut supply to 1.5625 BTC per block. Whether Bitcoin prices rally again depends on demand growth matching or exceeding the supply constraint.
But the setup is identical to previous cycles. Less new supply enters circulation, and if demand doesn’t collapse, prices tend to rise.
How Do Institutions Make Bitcoin Price Go Up?
They bring massive capital that dwarfs retail buying, while locking that Bitcoin into long-term holdings (like ETFs and corporate treasuries). This creates a “supply crunch” where high demand meets a shrinking amount of available coins, forcing the price upward.
Retail drove Bitcoin’s early rallies. Tech enthusiasts buying $100 or $1,000 worth accumulated during 2011-2016, and the market cap stayed small because participants were small.
Then institutions discovered Bitcoin. Not all at once, but in waves. Each wave brought massive capital and changed Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Wave 1: Futures Markets (December 2017) CME and CBOE launched Bitcoin futures. This legitimized Bitcoin for traditional finance. Hedge funds could now get exposure without buying actual Bitcoin. Institutions could trade Bitcoin derivatives with regulated counterparties.
Bitcoin rallied from $10,000 to $19,783 in two weeks after futures launched. Not purely because of futures, but futures signaled that institutional acceptance was arriving.
Wave 2: Corporate Treasuries (2020-2021) MicroStrategy bought $250 million of Bitcoin in August 2020, and $175 million more in September. Tesla took it a huge step further and allocated $1.5 billion in February 2021.
Public companies putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets changed the narrative from “speculative gambling” to “corporate treasury strategy.” Bitcoin rallied from $10,000 in September 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021.
The corporate treasury wave brought credibility. If publicly traded companies risked shareholder money on Bitcoin, maybe it wasn’t just internet money for criminals.
Wave 3: Spot Bitcoin ETFs (January 2024) BlackRock, Fidelity, and eight other asset managers launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. This gave mainstream investors easy access. No wallets, private keys, or exchanges, just buying IBIT or FBTC through your existing brokerage account.
ETFs collected $30+ billion in net inflows during their first year. That’s $30 billion of new demand buying Bitcoin to back ETF shares. Bitcoin rallied from $45,000 in January 2024 to $126,000 by October 2025.
Why institutional waves drive prices:
1. Capital scale: Retail investors buy thousands or tens of thousands, but institutions buy millions or billions. MicroStrategy alone holds over 500,000 BTC (over $33 billion at current prices). That level of buying creates sustained demand.
2. Holding patterns Retail panic-sells during crashes. On the other hand, institutions have mandates, committee approvals, and longer time horizons. They tend to hold through volatility and remove supply from circulation.
3. Credibility cascade When BlackRock launches a Bitcoin ETF, other institutions reconsider Bitcoin. Legitimacy from one major player makes it safer for others to follow. The credibility cascade drives successive waves of adoption.
Each institutional wave brought new all-time highs. Not immediately, but as capital flowed in and supply tightened, prices rose. Platforms like Paybis make it straightforward for both retail and institutional buyers to access Bitcoin, regardless of market conditions.
How Do All-Time Highs Affect the Bitcoin Price?
Breaking an ATH creates a “seller vacuum” because every single holder is in profit, meaning nobody is selling just to break even. This lack of resistance, combined with explosive media coverage and FOMO, creates a psychological feedback loop that drives prices into “price discovery” mode.
Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs triggers psychological effects that accelerate rallies. Every previous buyer is now in profit; no one holding Bitcoin lost money. Fear of missing out intensifies, and more people rush to buy Bitcoin.
Why new highs matter psychologically:
1. All holders profit simultaneously: When Bitcoin trades at $70,000 and hits $71,000, every single person who ever bought Bitcoin is profitable. That creates positive sentiment that no one is trapped or waiting to “break even.” Everyone holding feels smart.
Compare this to trading at $50,000 after a previous high of $69,000. Millions of people bought between $50k-$69k and are losing money. They’re looking to sell and recoup losses. The pressure of selling Bitcoin builds.
At new all-time highs, selling pressure comes only from people choosing to take profits, not from desperate bag-holders trying to escape.
2. Media coverage explodes: News outlets ignore Bitcoin trading sideways at $40,000. But Bitcoin hitting $75,000 (new record!) makes headlines.
Media attention brings new buyers, new buyers push prices higher, and higher prices generate more media attention. The feedback loop accelerates.
3. FOMO psychology activates: When Bitcoin rallies 20% in a month to new highs, people who didn’t buy regret missing gains, so they don’t want to miss more. FOMO (fear of missing out) drives purchases at any price.
Rational investors ask, “Is this overvalued?” FOMO-driven buyers ask, “Will I miss out if I don’t buy right now?” The second question produces more buying, regardless of valuation.
Historical examples:
- 2017 rally: Bitcoin broke its 2013 high of $1,163 in January 2017. After breaking into new territory, it rallied from $1,163 to $19,783 over 11 months. A 17x gain after hitting new all-time highs.
- 2020-2021 rally: Bitcoin surpassed its 2017 high of $19,783 in December 2020. It then rallied to $69,000 by November 2021. A 3.5x gain after new all-time highs.
- 2024-2025 rally: Bitcoin exceeded its 2021 high of $69,000 in March 2024. It rallied to $126,000 by October 2025. A 1.8x gain after breaking the previous record.
The pattern shows smaller % gains after new all-time highs, but the psychology remains constant. New records generate attention and FOMO, accelerating rallies.
For investors tracking Bitcoin’s movements during these rallies, having a secure Bitcoin wallet becomes essential as prices rise and holdings increase in value.
How Do Supply Shocks Affect the Prices?
Imagine 1,000 people want to buy Bitcoin today, but only 500 Bitcoins are available for sale at current prices. Buyers must either give up or pay more. As buyers bid prices higher, some sellers appear. But if most holders refuse to sell even at higher prices, the shock persists.
Back to basic economics: Bitcoin’s price rises when demand exceeds available supply. Supply shocks occur when long-term holders remove Bitcoin from circulation by refusing to sell, and create scarcity that forces prices higher.
This happened during every major Bitcoin rally.
How to identify supply shocks in data:
Blockchain analytics track coins by how long they’ve been held. Coins held 6+ months are “long-term holder” (LTH) supply. When LTH supply increases while prices rise, it signals accumulation. Holders are buying and removing coins from circulation.
2020-2021 supply shock:
- Long-term holder supply increased from 12 million BTC to 13.5 million BTC
- 1.5 million BTC removed from active circulation
- Price rallied from $10,000 to $69,000
- The available supply for new buyers shrank dramatically
2024-2025 supply shock:
- Long-term holder supply reached 14.5+ million BTC
- ETF purchases added demand while holders refused to sell
- Price rallied from $45,000 to $126,000
- New buyers competed for the shrinking available supply
Why long-term holders matter:
1. They remove supply durably: Short-term traders buy and sell frequently. Long-term holders accumulate and hold for years. Each Bitcoin moved into long-term holder hands might not return to circulation for 2-4 years.
2. They don’t panic-sell during corrections: When Bitcoin drops 20%, traders sell. Long-term holders hold or even buy more. This stabilizes supply during corrections and makes recovery rallies stronger.
3. They create upward pressure on prices: If 70% of Bitcoin is held by people refusing to sell, only 30% trades actively. New demand must compete for that 30%, which pushes prices higher.
Lost Bitcoin (estimated 3-4 million coins) permanently removes supply, and coins held by long-term believers effectively remove it temporarily. Both create scarcity.
Miner selling decreases post-halving:
Bitcoin miners historically sold most of their Bitcoin to cover electricity costs. Post-halving, they receive half as much new Bitcoin. Even if they sell 100% of mined coins, total miner selling drops 50%.
Many miners now hold portions of mined Bitcoin, speculating on price appreciation. When miners change from selling 100% to selling 60%, the supply available to buyers shrinks even further.
This reduced miner selling, combined with long-term holder accumulation, gets you supply shocks. Prices rise because buyers must bid higher to convince anyone to part with their Bitcoin.
The Media Attention and Its Effect on BTC Prices
Bitcoin rallies create media coverage, which brings new buyers, and new buyers push prices higher. Higher prices generate more media coverage. The same loop accelerates until it breaks.
How the cycle works:
- Phase 1: Bitcoin rises slowly (under the radar): Bitcoin climbs from $30,000 to $40,000 over three months. Almost no headlines, since trading volume stays moderate and only existing crypto participants notice.
- Phase 2: Bitcoin breaks significant levels (initial coverage): Bitcoin crosses $50,000, and breaks previous resistance. Financial news websites publish “Bitcoin crosses $50k” stories, but only a few mainstream outlets mention it briefly.
- Phase 3: Acceleration brings daily coverage (momentum builds): Bitcoin rallies from $50,000 to $70,000 in six weeks. Now it’s news; CNBC discusses it daily, Bloomberg terminal pushes alerts, and even your crypto-ignorant friends start asking a lot of questions.
- Phase 4: Everyone’s talking about it (peak attention): Bitcoin hits $100,000+. It dominates financial news. Barbers and taxi drivers give Bitcoin predictions, relatives ask for buying advice at holidays. Google searches for “how to buy Bitcoin” spike 500%.
- Phase 5: New buyers flood in (climax): All this attention brings millions of new buyers, since people who never considered crypto decide they can’t miss out. Volume explodes, exchanges crash from traffic, and Bitcoin reaches blow-off top (like 2025 October).
- Phase 6: Crash and silence (cycle reversal) Bitcoin drops 20% in three days. Media shifts to “Bitcoin crash” stories. New buyers who bought the top panic, so selling accelerates. Bitcoin falls 50%, 60%, 70%. The media stops covering it except for occasional “Bitcoin is dead” think pieces.
Historical attention cycles:
2017 cycle:
- Google searches for “Bitcoin” hit record highs in December 2017
- Coinbase was the #1 app download on iOS
- Bitcoin dominated holiday conversations
- Peak media attention coincided with $19,783 top
- Attention disappeared during the 2018-2019 bear market
2021 cycle:
- “How to buy Bitcoin” searches surged in Q4 2021
- SNL featured Bitcoin (Elon Musk hosted)
- Major athletes and celebrities discussed Bitcoin holdings
- Super Bowl featured multiple crypto company ads
- Peak attention came near $69,000 top
2024-2025 cycle:
- Bitcoin ETF launches generated mainstream coverage
- Bitcoin hitting $100,000 dominated financial news
- Search volume for “Bitcoin” reached new records
- Media attention peaked as Bitcoin approached $126,000
The pattern repeats because human psychology doesn’t change.
However, smart investors recognize the attention cycle and understand that peak media coverage often signals rally exhaustion, while silence often marks accumulation opportunities.
What Separates Temporary Pumps From Real Bull Markets
Bitcoin pumps 20% in a week regularly. Most of these pumps fail and reverse within days or weeks. Real bull markets sustain rallies for months or years, pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs and keeping it there.
How to distinguish pumps from bull markets:
| Characteristic | Temporary Pump | Real Bull Market |
|---|---|---|
| Price Movement | Sharp vertical movement (20%+ in 1-3 days) | Steady upward grind with periodic pullbacks |
| Trading Volume | Low volume relative to price change | Increasing volume over months |
| Catalysts | Single catalyst (one piece of news, one large buyer) | Multiple supporting factors (halvings, adoption, macro tailwinds) |
| All-Time High | Fails to break previous all-time high | Breaks through previous all-time high decisively |
| Duration | Reverses within 2-4 weeks | Sustains gains for 6-18 months |
Example comparison:
Pump: February 2020 ($10,300) Bitcoin rallied from $8,500 to $10,300 in two weeks (21% gain). Volume was moderate, and no fundamental change occurred. Bitcoin reversed back to $8,800 within three weeks.
Bull market: October 2020 – November 2021 Bitcoin rallied from $10,500 to $69,000 over 13 months (557% gain). Volume increased steadily, and multiple factors supported it: halving effects, institutional adoption, macro stimulus, and PayPal integration. Bitcoin stayed above previous highs for over a year.
Duration matters:
A rally lasting 1-2 months might be a pump. A rally lasting 8-15 months is almost certainly a bull market. Time filters out noise and reveals genuine trend changes.
If you try to distinguish pumps from bull markets, you can track multiple cryptocurrencies using comparison tools like the Litecoin calculator and Solana calculator alongside Bitcoin to identify broader sector trends.
Bottom Line
Understanding why Bitcoin rises doesn’t predict where it goes next. But it helps you separate signal from noise and genuine bull markets from temporary pumps.
For those looking to participate in Bitcoin rallies, Paybis provides straightforward access through multiple payment methods, whether you’re buying during early rally phases or after breakouts make headlines.
The next Bitcoin rally will have new headlines and new narratives. But the main drivers will likely be familiar: scarce supply versus growing demand, institutions, macro conditions, and human psychology responding to rising prices the same way it always has.
FAQ
Does Bitcoin always go up after halvings?
Bitcoin has rallied 12-18 months after every halving so far (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), but past patterns don’t guarantee future results. The halving reduces the new Bitcoin supply by 50%, creating supply constraints that historically preceded bull markets. However, diminishing returns appear in each cycle (8,000% after 2012 halving, 280% after 2016, 540% after 2020, and less after 2024), suggesting the pattern might weaken as Bitcoin matures.
Why does Bitcoin rise when stocks fall?
Bitcoin doesn’t consistently move opposite to stocks. During 2020-2021, Bitcoin and stocks rallied together as stimulus flooded markets. During 2022, both fell together as interest rates rose. The “uncorrelated asset” narrative oversimplifies. Bitcoin sometimes acts as a risk asset (falling with stocks), sometimes as an alternative asset (rising when confidence in traditional finance wavers), and sometimes moves independently based on crypto-specific factors like halvings or regulatory news.
What makes Bitcoin go up faster than other cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin often leads crypto market rallies because:
- It has the largest market cap and liquidity, making it easiest for institutions to enter.
- It has the strongest brand recognition and media coverage,
- It has spot ETFs providing regulated exposure, and
- It has the longest track record, reducing perceived risk.
However, altcoins like Ethereum or Solana can outperform Bitcoin during specific phases when their utility or technology adoption accelerates faster than Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.
Can Bitcoin keep going up forever?
Bitcoin cannot rise infinitely because it would eventually exceed the value of all global wealth. Realistic limits exist. Bitcoin’s entire addressable market might be “alternative to gold” ($18 trillion), “alternative to reserve currencies” ($20+ trillion), or “digital property for global savings” (unknown size). If Bitcoin captured gold’s market cap, it would be worth roughly $900,000 per coin. Whether Bitcoin can sustain values beyond that depends on finding additional use cases or expanding its addressable market beyond current categories.
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