TRON has generated a large amount of hype over the past 3 years. From its founder’s infamous mentorship by Alibaba legend Jack Ma, to the project’s ambitious roadmap, it is certainly one of the gems to look out for.
Yet, in this uncertain economic period, it’s quite hard to make predictions for TRON’s coin (TRX) future value. Even though we are in the midst of what seems like a bull market, the dynamics of the market seem to be changing on a daily basis.
In this post, we take a look at TRON’s past performance since its inception, the opportunities and dangers ahead, and its future potential. Towards the end of this post, we will also offer our very own TRON price prediction. Let’s delve in!
A primer on TRON
Being at the forefront of blockchain development, Chinese projects seem to be performing well in positive market conditions. The same can be said for TRX. When it was first introduced to the market, it generated a huge amount of hype, driving its price upwards.
TRON was one of the first projects to solely focus on the development of a decentralized platform for content sharing and entertainment – shortly after STEEM. Even in the unfavorable market conditions of 2018, the project managed to acquire file sharing platform BitTorrent and make a significant investment in Poloniex exchange.
The same effort and consistency can be observed in its marketing and community building efforts. And there’s a good reason for that. By continuously introducing more functionalities to its blockchain, users can participate in governance decisions of the network (co-create) by staking their coins, and earn rewards along the way (passive income opportunities).
Current TRON price trends
2020 has been a rather uncertain year for crypto. From the unexpected COVID-19 market drop, to the FUD of Chinese exchanges, TRON has been experiencing a large amount of volatility.
However, when looking at the latest 4-month period, we can confidently say that the coin is recovering from its recent lows.
TRX is still way behind some of the most popular altcoins. At the moment of this writing, it is ±90% below its ATH, sitting at $0,026 USD.
When looking at the daily chart, TRX is no longer following a local downtrend (break above the falling wedge), which could mean that we are poised to see some slow and stable gains within the last quarter of 2020.
What drives TRON up
TRX has been performing well against its relatively stable Bitcoin pair. The coin is now nearly 300% up from its March lows and seems to be headed for more. Among others, here’s why we are experiencing positive market conditions:
Banking on DeFi
Part of the reason that drove the coin’s price up in relation to the overall performance of the market is DeFi’s increase in popularity. Seeing the high demand for yield farming on the Ethereum network, Justin Sun launched JustSwap, a decentralized exchange on Tron’s blockchain. He also introduced SUN coin, and the controversial Wrapped Bitcoin, which are both quickly rising in the top positions of CoinMarketCap
TRON’s attempt to benefit from the DeFi hype was successful since transactions are cheaper and faster that than of ETH.
#ETH will always be the king of DeFi, but other blockchain will start eating ETH market share over the years unless ETH fixes the gas problem soon
Smart Contract leader based on daily average users:
ETH = Coca Cola
TRON = Pepsi
Tron gas fee is one penny per smart contract. https://t.co/sWKUaUJn65
— Tommy Mustache #❤️❤️❤️ (@MustacheTommy) September 7, 2020
Thanks to the continuous marketing efforts and the founder’s involvement and TRX’s growth and promotion, the project’s userbase has grown significantly. With over 10 million active wallet addresses, TRON now has one of the largest communities in the crypto market.
#TRON users exceeded 10M! Next goal 100M!
1st account was created on 6/25/2018, 182 days later, the millionth account was created on 12/24/2018, 625 days later, the 10 millionth account was created on 9/19/2020.
AVG growth rate grew from 3k to 60k per day, a 20 times increase! pic.twitter.com/zUufSHF9jl
— Justin Sun🌞 (@justinsuntron) September 20, 2020
Within 2020, TRON formed strategic collaborations with many promising partners. Among them are:
- Binance-owned Band Protocol, to bring secure and decentralized oracles to power its DeFi platform.
- Gaming platforms Refereum, to incentivize rewards for gamers (in TRX & BTT)
- Samsung Keystore, to allow users easier access to TRON-based dApps
📲 Future of #dapps through smartphones
🤳🏽 #TRON‘s focus on simple user experience
🤝 Samsung partnership opens up doors to other major players & industries@TronWalletMe @Tronfoundationhttps://t.co/tj0TNtkszU
— Misha Lederman (@mishalederman) January 23, 2020
The long-awaited blockchain upgrades
In May 2020, Justin Sun announced the release of TRON 4.0, a network upgrade that will increase the privacy of TRX (through shielded transactions), improving the cryptocurrency’s interoperability and its ability to scale. You can read more about the features and benefits of this upgrade here.
TRON vs Ethereum: The never-ending battle
While China forms a big market for cryptocurrencies globally, the marketing methods they implement seem to have a lesser impact and often feel awkward to the western world. In some instances, it even seems shady in nature (e.g. when Tron made a strategic investment in Poloniex earlier this year).
In many ways, cultural barriers are more important than people think when it comes to the adoption and hype of a certain cryptocurrency. And we all know that the ability to generate hype is more important than a coin’s fundamentals in positive market conditions.
This is why Ethereum keeps a low-key approach. It’s founder, Vitalik Buterin does not tweet hype-related content and only focuses on technical conversations that advance its project forward. The explosive growth of Ethereum-based DeFi projects and NFTs speaks louder than shallow promotional efforts and future promises.
Overall, when observing the general sentiment of the market, we believe that Ethereum will outshine TRON in this bull market. If you want to learn more about Ethereum and its potential in the next two years, make sure you read this post.
What may go wrong with TRON price
Before making a TRX price prediction, we need to take into consideration all the possible challenges that will affect its price along the way.
Challenge #1 – Lack of trust from the community
Market sentiment is a very strong factor when it comes to a coin’s potential to increase in value. Unfortunately, we have previously seen Justin Tron call TRX a “shitcoin” live when briefly interviewed by crypto podcaster Peter McCormack.
Challenge #2 – Increased competition
When TRON was first launched in 2017, the crypto market was less crowded. As demand for cryptocurrencies is (once again) increasing, there is also more competition and market saturation. More coins with similar functionalities are being launched, most of which will attempt to “steal” part of TRX’s market cap. This will naturally affect the level of demand, which means that the userbase needs to keep growing to maintain the current price point.
Challenge #3 – Bitcoin outshines altcoins
According to historical data, we are quickly approaching a post-halving trend, which should take Bitcoin to new highs. If this occurs, and the price of altcoins decrease against Bitcoin, we can see many traders exit their positions and moving it into BTC. This would, in turn, decrease the value of altcoins, including TRX.
TRON price prediction: Technical analysis
When looking at the price chart of TRX against USD since its inception, we can derive some helpful conclusions. These will help us make a more accurate TRON price prediction.
- TRON’s peak price was reached on January 5th, 2017 ($0,23), after which it steadily decreased in value. Note that the green line compares the coin’s value with the USD, while the orange line compares it against BTC.
- After a sharp price decline, the coin saw a brief upward move to the $0,08 levels (mostly hype induced recovery) before slowly and steadily decreasing in value.
- The lowest price TRX ever reached was in March 2020, shortly after the pandemic-induced market crash. It is for that reason that we are rather uncertain of whether TRON and the altcoin market, in general, is currently in the midst of a bull market.
- Ever since the recovery of the market and the introduction of several new crypto products on the TRON blockchain (discussed above), we see a slow but steady recovery taking place. Having broken out of a 2-year downtrend (against the USD), TRON now has the potential to return to the $0,10 area, before making any serious attempts to break its previous ATH.
Short-term prediction: Slow recovery to ATH
If we were to make a TRON price prediction for the end of this year, we would most likely expect a slow recovery to $0,05 – $0,06 area. While this number may seem somewhat conservative compared to other predictions, keep in mind that TRON’s hype is running on fumes; the market is not expecting big things to happen soon so our prediction is purely based on the overall demand for altcoins.
Long-term prediction: Uncertain (but possibly bullish)
In the long-term, we expect two different scenarios:
- Bullish scenario ($0,3-$0,4) – TRON outshines or directly competes with Ethereum as the go-to DeFi choice, increasing the utility of TRX and thus the number of active holders. This scenario is somewhat likely.
- Bearish scenario ($0,02) – More promising, hyped up coins receive more attention and outgrow TRON’s market cap. Purely based on marketing and speculation, more users would choose to invest in different coins, decreasing demand for the coin, and thus its potential for price growth.
To invest or not to invest?
Before investing in any cryptocurrency, you should do your own research. By simply reading this post you get an overview of TRON and its potential, but not a complete roadmap for the next year. Therefore, consider doing the following:
Track market sentiment of TRON community
What does the community think about TRX? How many posts are positive and how many are negative? There are many ways to get a better overview of social media sentiment. You can start by checking TRON-specific hashtags on Twitter, check data from LunarCrush, or go through crypto-related channels on Reddit.
Take every prediction with a grain of salt
No price prediction is accurate and should be seen as an estimation at best. Our TRON price prediction is purely based on historic market performance. Therefore, keep a level-headed approach and set realistic goals.
Choose a suitable investment method
There are many different ways to invest in TRON (TRX). Some are more costly and complicated than others. When using Paybis to buy TRX, your first credit/debit card transaction is free from all fees and commissions, offering the best possible market price.
Remember the dangers of price volatility
Choosing to invest comes with its own risks. Therefore, before making a purchase make sure that your emotions are in check, and you can use your logic to plan ahead and make selling decisions. After all, crypto is most seen as a long term game.
TRON is certainly an interesting investment opportunity in a world where incentivized digital attention becomes more popular. The long-term goals of TRX make it a luring investment, but its short-term tactics also make it risky.
In this article, we shared our TRON price prediction and all the different scenarios that could affect its value. In short, we can believe that any of the three following scenarios could play out in the next few months (& years)
- Short-term (EOY prediction) – TRX slowly heads back to $0,05 following a steady recovery of higher lows.
- Long term (bullish TRON price prediction) – TRX exceeds its previous ATH, peaking anywhere between $0,3-$0,4.
- Long term (bearish TRON price prediction) – TRX slowly grinds towards irrelevance and remains stagnant between $0,02-$0,03.
Keep in mind that none of the information presented in this article constitutes financial advice. We strongly recommend that you continue your research and form your own, individual opinion, without benign affected by marketing tactics that are so often seen in the crypto space.