Over the past few months, Ethereum Classic (ETC) has been the topic of many discussions. The forked Ethereum project was created just four years ago after the popular DAO hack created a chasm in the crypto community.
The “classic” version follows the original Ethereum protocol and remains loyal to the philosophy of blockchain immutability. The newer version – what we know as Ethereum (ETH) – was moved to a new chain in order to return all the stolen coins from the DAO hack.
And while many may think that the original version would attract most crypto-idealists, that’s not necessarily true. Nowadays, the cryptocurrency has been making front-page news for its security issues and delisting notices of large exchanges.
Ethereum Classic price prediction posts don’t seem too hopeful either. Many are uncertain of the coin’s future, wondering if the coin can overcome its hurdles and survive in the long term.
In this article, we take a look at ETC’s recent events and make a realistic price prediction for its future value.
Historical data for Ethereum Classic price
Ethereum classic is not performing well since its latest all-time high. After reaching a peak price at slightly above $40 per coin, it returned to its prior strong resistance in the $20 area, before slowly losing more than 90% of its value.
Over the past two years, ETC has not managed to see a significant recovery back to the $20 area. Even with certain events “hyping it up” temporarily, the public interest in Ethereum Classic seems to be diminishing.
This could also be partially related to the bullish events that made Ethereum a lot more popular recently (DeFi space, ETH 2.0, etc.). ETH seems to be getting a lot of public interest and is able to upgrade regularly, resolving any issues that may arise.
But that’s not always true for ETC. Overall, the coin seems to bounce steadily between $3 – $6 for the better part of the last two years.
Overview of the current price performance
On a closer look, it might be more relevant to explore ETC’s 1YR chart. This will help us get a better understanding of where we stand and where we are headed.
The first months of 2020 have been rather encouraging. From December to early March, ETC experienced a brief breakout towards the $12 levels (>300% increase in value).
However, since the Covid-19 crash, Ethereum Classic is struggling. While we can see some local peaks occurring over the past few months, the price has lost all its bullish momentum.
On a positive note, the cryptocurrency is making higher lows since the beginning of this year, which hints at a potential recovery at some point in the future.
This brings us to August, possibly the most difficult month for ETC since its creation.
Ethereum Classic has a tough time
In August 2020 alone, Ethereum Classic suffered three consecutive 51% attacks. The unfortunate events had a negative effect on both the price (-45%) and the overall community trust.
The events in detail
First 51% Attack – July 29th – August 1st: The first attacker generated 3693 blocks as a fork from block 10904146 till 10907740. He then broadcasted the blocks to other miners who, in turn, accepted them, replacing the blockchain’s history with that of the attacker. As a result:
- Some ETC transfers made on the ETC network between the 31st of July and August 1st no longer appear in users’ wallets (lost funds).
- Some miners lost ETC, while others spent their hashing power mining on the old chain.
- Attacker double-spent $5.6m during the attack, and received a block reward of 130.000 ETC.
Second 51% Attack – August 5th – The second attack occurred just 4 days after the first, organizing a little more than 4000 transaction blocks (>$93.000 in mining rewards for the attacker).
- At this point, the community starts to urge the team behind ETC to switch its PoW model into PoS to avoid such attacks in the future.
Third 51% Attack – August 29th: The latest attack was the most damaging. By reorganizing 7000 blocks (2 days worth of mining).
- Due to the attack, OKEx exchange reports a loss of $5.6 million dollars. The exchange is now considering the delisting of ETC due to the network’s severe lack of security.
- BitFlyer and Coincheck suspended ETC deposits for the time being.
- Coinbase also slammed ETC, by taking heavy precautions and extending deposits and withdrawal confirmation times to approximately 2 weeks.
- Derivatives exchange FTX is also considering the delisting of ETC from its perpetual futures contracts.
Is Ethereum Classic doomed?
It’s clear that the recent news had a negative effect on the coin’s price. However, there is also good news. The recent network attacks acted as a wake-up call for ETC Labs, the organization behind ETC.
The company has already created a strategy to avoid future 51% attacks and recently announced a new partnership with CainSafe and OpenRelay to increase its security. In time, we expect to see the network strengthen and hopefully recover as far as investor loyalty is concerned.
So what does this mean for the value of ETC? At this point, we have at least some basic information that will allow us to make an Ethereum Classic price prediction. In the following chapters, we will explore all possible scenarios and their expected outcome.
Scenario 1: Ethereum Classic reaches the all-time low
When it comes to the current market sentiment surrounding ETC, a bearish scenario seems very likely. Following the recent events, we could see most major exchanges delisting ETC, making it less liquid and, thus, not a preferable investment. And, as we already saw above, many large exchanges are considering this move.
For this to happen, ETC would need to suffer more 51% attacks in the future, constituting their new partnerships as futile to the network’s safety.
Is this Ethereum price prediction realistic?
This possibility is quite realistic since the cost of a 51% attack on the ETC network only costs $12.000 per hour. This means that a large enough budget could lead to the manipulation of transaction blocks.
Following a new 51% attack, two things are most likely to happen:
- The community will lose complete trust in the project. If this happens, holders will proceed to sell their ETC at market price before a mass delisting from popular exchanges decreases the coin’s value.
- Miners will focus their attention on other cryptocurrencies that are “safer” to mine and liquid enough to sell in order to fuel their operations.
Lack of participation from investors of the open market and miners could slowly drag the coin’s price down to $1-$2 levels within one year. If this happens, the coin’s long-term price will most likely remain stagnant at the same levels.
Scenario 2: Ethereum Classic goes to the moon
While this scenario seems less likely to occur, we could see a positive Ethereum Classic price prediction if certain criteria are met:
- Ethereum (ETH) continues to disappoint with their repeated delays of ETH 2.0 release. This could lead to a shift in community preference, making Ethereum Classic a more viable long term solution.
- Following the above, Ethereum Classic would need to create interoperability between chains, bridging ETH with ETC. By doing so, they will be able to support stablecoins, dApps, and DeFi projects.
- The new security-related partnerships of ETC increase its safety to a point where more exchanges might consider re-listing it on spot markets.
- ETC Labs listens to the advice of Vitalik Buterin and switches its consensus model to POS.
ETC should just switch to proof of stake. Even given its risk-averse culture, at this point making the jump seems lower-risk than not making it.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 6, 2020
Is this Ethereum Classic price prediction realistic?
For Ethereum Classic (ETC) to “go to the moon” we would need to see many of the above-mentioned changes take full effect simultaneously in a short amount of time. At the same time, we would need to see an overall positive market sentiment, which would bring more new investors in the scene.
Is this possible? Well, with everything we have experienced in the past few years in the world of cryptocurrency, it is certainly possible. If this Ethereum Classic price prediction materializes, we could see ETC break through its ATH and reach ±$50 within one year.
Scenario 3: Ethereum Classic shows a stable growth
If Ethereum Classic is to grow steadily following its existing price trends, it would be best to base our prediction over its higher lows in an extended timeframe. This would take ETC to a modest price point of $10 by 2023.
Is this Ethereum Classic price prediction realistic?
Certainly more realistic than the “moon” scenario we described above. For ETC to continue making higher lows, all we would need is to see the current bull market take full effect, which would naturally lead to an increase in transaction volumes and thus demand.
However, this also entails that ETC would need to remain listed on large exchanges and ensure that future hacking attempts are avoided.
Realistic prediction: Price can go different ways
Following our different scenarios, it is easy to understand that the future of ETC is very uncertain. The popular cryptocurrency is facing a crossroad that leads to different outcomes. And the road that it will take will depend on:
- The ability of ETC Labs to resolve existing issues
- The demand of the market (bull market)
- The increase in potential applications for ETC
Should you invest in ETC?
While we cannot give you any financial advice, we do feel that ETC is a very risky investment at the moment of this writing. Having suffered multiple security breaches, it has become very unstable. In our opinion, it is best to wait and see how the current issues are resolved and how the coin performs until the end of the year.
Ways to invest in ETC
Ethereum classic can be purchased in many different ways:
- You can buy the coin from an exchange and directly store it in your wallet.
- You can invest in mining equipment and try to mint your own ETC.
- Finally, you can also invest in futures or options contracts to try and guess the coin’s future price. This method is riskier but more rewarding.
A few investment tips
Since ETC is a rather risky investment, here are some things you need to remember:
- Never invest more than you can afford to lose
- Never store your funds on exchanges – choose a private wallet instead
- Adopt a low time-preference and avoid emotional trading
At the moment of this writing, Ethereum Classic is a very risky investment. Yet, risky investments are also the most rewarding. This is why, in this article, we analyzed all the possible scenarios for the coin’s price. Here are the three Ethereum Classic price predictions that could materialize in the coming year:
- ETC price continues to go sideways as a result of future 51% attacks and lack of community trust. This takes the coin’s price to a range of $1-$2 within a year.
- ETC resolves its issues and manages to switch to POS effectively. By doing so, demand increases, and (if the bull market continues to perform on a positive note), we see ETC reaching $50+ within a year.
- The cryptocurrency does not make head news but manages to slowly recover from its low price and a bad reputation. Following the past year’s higher lows, we see ETC recover to $10 within 2,5 years.