The entire history of Bitcoin has been rather tempestuous in contrast to some of the other markets. But we always knew that this revolutionary technology wasn’t going to succeed overnight.
The volatile nature of Bitcoin can indeed appeal to some people, who may come up with absurd future price estimations. But their “wishful thinking” will often deceive new investors.
This is why we at Paybis try to make educated guesses, based on valid information and factual truths.
That’s exactly what this post is all about:
- You will learn more about the technological developments in the Blockchain space
- We will attempt to answer whether Bitcoin will go up again
- We will analyze the factors that could cause a price increase
In other words, we estimate whether Bitcoin will go up again. We present the facts in a way that is easy to understand, just so everyone can understand what’s in store for everyone’s favorite cryptocurrency.
Our goal with this post is to make an accurate estimation and see if Bitcoin will go up again. To do this, we present existing facts in an easy-to-understand fashion, so that everyone, including beginners, can get an idea of the future Bitcoin holds.
Will Bitcoin go up again?
This is a tough nut to crack, right?
Therefore, let’s take a look at the facts and make an informed decision.
Technological developments in the Blockchain space
Bitcoin, or blockchain technology for that matter, is still quite new. It might sound a bit superficial, but, that’s only because eventful it has been and how much close attention people pay to even the smallest details.
Although Bitcoin was created ten years ago, it has gained widespread popularity only in the recent 3-4 years. That’s one of the main reasons why it’s still in its infancy. It has a large community of users and contributors that constantly update it with new features.
Adding to that, governments are also working to integrate cryptos into the mainstream market. Several of the big players in the financial market, namely the USA and the UK, have already started regulating Bitcoin.
Bitcoin shows signs of recovery
It was Christmas 2017 when Bitcoin rose and fell by thousands of USD. That was a historical event for everybody, whether involved in the Bitcoin business or not.
Ever since that substantial plunge at the beginning of 2018, Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies have been showing a steady pace, with minor fluctuations.
In the last months, the Bitcoin market cap has increased by over $30 billion, rising from around $61 billion in February 2019 to over $93 billion in April 2019.
Moreover, this number is increasing steadily.
So, statistically speaking, if you have a look at the biweekly moving average over the last three months, right now is a pretty good time for Bitcoin investors and enthusiasts.
Mainstream adoption is underway
The increase in market capitalization that we are currently experiencing is primarily tied to more and more institutional investors such as BlockFi and Cumberland. Besides just direct contributions to market capitalization, large organizations and governments are adopting and normalizing Bitcoin.
For instance, Belarusbank, the largest bank in Belarus is considering setting up a cryptocurrency exchange. With more authorized adoptions like these, Bitcoin could soon become the new normal, glaring upon the fiat currencies.
Now let’s answer the burning question, shall we?
Bitcoin’s roadmap – what’s next for this Cryptocurrency?
To understand the future, we ought to go back in time.
So, let’s take a look at the journey of Bitcoin for the past decade.
The crypto-sphere has had quite the childhood, has it not?
From a pizza for 10,000 Bitcoins in 2010 to an all-time high of $19,750 for a Bitcoin in 2017.
This timeline of Bitcoin shows the major influences on the value of the cryptocurrency. These events, both good and bad have affected the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in general.
If you really want to make, arguably the safest bet, you must look at external factors such as these before you make an investment. Despite how overwhelming it might sound, it’s no different than investing in stocks/bonds.
One such important factor which is also quite easy to estimate is the Bitcoin halving.
Unlike the Central Banks around the world, this protocol algorithmically regulates inflation, by halving miners’ rewards every 4 years.
And the next Bitcoin halving, which we referred to above, will occur in May 2020.
What this means is that Bitcoin may, once again, experience a surge in its price after its 2020 halving.
Going into 2020
At the moment we are entering 2020 with a hopeful conviction that Bitcoin’s price will keep increasing as the 3rd halving gets closer.
Historically speaking, the price has always seen a slight bump before the event takes place, after which it takes approximately one year to see significant returns. Whether this occurs one more time is a question of patience and continuous effort to increase mainstream adoption.
Bitcoin forecast for 2020 onwards
Take these projections with a grain of salt for there is a multitude of factors that need to be taken into consideration.
Commodities like Bitcoin often undergo bear and bull markets, which can make price predictions quite unreliable. One of the reasons this happens is due to its unregulated and unpegged nature, as opposed to fiat currencies.
Volatility is both good and bad; if you happen to buy Bitcoin and the market becomes bearish, then you just gotta wait.
As they say, the best time to sell a stock (or Bitcoin) is never.
The highest point of Bitcoin’s market cap was in the last quarter of 2017 and early 2018. During that time, the general population invested substantial amounts in the market hoping to make a quick profit.
And when that did not happen, those same people started looking for other opportunities to make money from cryptocurrency.
My point is, factors such as the demand and exchange rate should normalize over the next years, leading to fewer fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin.
Rejoice knowing that we are part of a technological revolution of the future
You heard it here first.
Now onto the graphs and numbers
In the spirit of keeping things understandable for everyone including the people that are not descendants of the Euclidean bloodline, we won’t go into a serious statistical explanation.
In the near future
Looking at the current charts of Bitcoin, the price is relatively stable. The price broke the local downtrend line, and it gave us asignal.
At the same time, the market could potentially drop lower, to the $7100 level. Why is this support level important?
You can see how the price acted at this level in the beginning of December. This support was a starting point for a local uptrend. The same is true for this time.
If the price doesn’t increase based on the breakout, it could potentially lead us to the $7100s price range, with the next target being 7500.
So, will Bitcoin go up again?
Yes, it can (and it has).
When it comes to the price of Bitcoin, it is normal to see fluctuations. Its price may go up and then fall back down to find support, only to go up once again in its next run.
Keep an eye out for this very likely pullback as it may provide a window of opportunity for a good investment.
Buy low, sell high, obviously!
The support legs (denoted with dashed green lines) on this chart give a good guideline for possible future market movements.
Thus, to see the big picture clearly, one must step back and consider other factors that are vital to understanding the movement of graphs.
The factors the can cause Bitcoin’s price to increase
As mentioned, it is hard to predict the future of Bitcoin without accounting for the many different factors that influence it.
So, here are some of the top factors that could affect Bitcoin’s price.
Supply and demand
Supply and demand is an important factor in determining the value of Bitcoin at any given time. It is influenced by other aspects such as publicity, governments’ regulations and so on (discussed further below).
On one side, supply is generated by miners that create new Bitcoins. On the other side, demand is created by people who are interested in buying Bitcoins due to increased trust within the crypto community and general awareness among other factors.
Therefore, demand > supply = price goes up, and supply > demand = price goes down.
Good news there, as the supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million which will have been mined in the next century, 2140, according to estimates. This means that the price of Bitcoin will likely only go up as time passes because of limited supply and demand that increases month over month.
Let’s just hope that we’ll still have computers and Bitcoin a century later.
Government regulations on Bitcoin transactions
As opposed to fiat currency, Bitcoin is not pegged to a specific state or organization. Being cross-border and all, it is challenging for governments to lay down laws and regulations for cryptocurrencies.
However, many countries have already started regulating cryptocurrency with new laws.
Japan has paved the way for the future of currencies and has gone on to recognize Bitcoin as a legal payment option since April 2017. It’s common for stores in Japan to accept Bitcoin as a payment option.
Whenever there has been a new regulation, Bitcoin price has wavered as a result. Even if the regulation is not directly about Bitcoins or cryptocurrencies, the price still seems to have been affected.
For example, when Cyprus faced a financial crisis and funds were seized, there were discussions about making Bitcoin the official currency in Cyprus.
Just like with regulatory approvals, the price also oscillates when a country bans or even restricts Bitcoin trading, like China for example.
Publicity, awareness, and approval of Bitcoin among people
Given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, just the slightest change of sentiment can sway the price either way. The media plays a major role in all this, of course.
Here are a couple of examples to better illustrate this fact:
- Mt. Gox, which was handling 70% of all transactions got hacked, losing about 480 million USD worth (at that time) of Bitcoin, set forth a price plunge of over 400%.
- When John McAfee tweeted about XVG (Verge) being a viable cryptocurrency to invest in, the coin’s price increased 10-fold.
This example shows just how much influence a celebrity endorsement can have.
In contrast to the global economy, the market capitalization of cryptocurrency is not as large. Therefore, sometimes, even a minor rumor that goes viral can lead to a surge in its price.
Is that bad?
Perhaps. However, history suggests that negative media publicity causes only short term price drops.
In this case, history has also answered the question, “Will Bitcoin go up again?” time and time again.
In fact, some bad news every now and then could actually favor Bitcoin investors and enthusiast, both new and old to the scene.
After all, the bear market presents great investment opportunities.
It is good to remember that negative publicity is still publicity.
The Bitcoin community
Despite the rise of numerous other cryptocurrencies every day, Bitcoin has the highest value, mainly because of its first-mover advantage, and also because of the community’s trust.
It is only wise to pay close attention to the shared sentiments and outlook of Bitcoin amongst the community members.
As a user, especially as a trader, you are to gain as much intel as possible from reputable forums, Discord channels, discussions, conferences, and so on.
It’s not easy work obviously, but these are the things you’ll need to do if you crave a huge success with your Bitcoin endeavors.
In a nutshell, this is a currency still in its infancy and is quite volatile. Regardless, many people still see as the means to the next big (technological) revolution. With the right knowledge and luck, you might benefit from this venture like many others have.
Updates to the Bitcoin/Blockchain technology
Major changes like this tend to attract more users, developers, investors, entrepreneurs and so on. And as such, this improves the reputation with the government and subsequently in the media as well.
Here are some good instances of what’s coming next for BTC:
- Bitcoin halving – the next one is in May 2020
- Adding more functionalities to Bitcoin with the addition of Blockstream technology.
- The Arwen trading protocol that moves crypto through blockchain-based escrow
Circling back, just like government regulations, technical developments gain the media’s attention. Subsequently that of the users, investors, and developers as well.
Despite all the unknown variables, here are some ways you can prepare for the bull market.
Ways to prepare for the bull market
So, if you think Bitcoin will go up again – it’s time to prepare.
First off, bear and bull markets come and go. If you miss one opportunity there’ll likely be another one sometime soon. It’s not a question of if, but when.
Invest only what you can afford to lose
Investment of any type in any market is never fully predictable. Outside the investment, you have no influence over the result (in almost all cases). Regardless of how much potential you see in a stock, invest with restraint.
Be disciplined and not deceived!
When you are about to get greedy, revisit the grim period of Q4 2017 & Q1 2018 and lock in the profit when you have made enough money.
Keep a lookout for Ponzi schemes
If an investment sounds too good to be true, then it most likely is.
Oftentimes, you will come across self-proclaimed experts who are heavily promoting a cryptocurrency to increase its value.
Once they hit their goal, these people will take their profits and leave you with a token that is worth practically nothing.
Get your spot on exchanges now
If you haven’t already, do it now. Register in exchanges you prefer before the traffic increases so as to ensure your place in the next bull market trades.
When the price goes up, the transactions will also rise significantly. This leads to exchanges not allowing more new customers to keep up the server demand and maintain their liquidity margin.
For example, towards Q4 2017, when the market was bullish, many exchanges did exactly that and disallowed new signups.
Preserve your wallet
The first thing you do is put your tokens/coins on a hardware wallet. Also depending on the number of cryptos you have, distribute your funds over two or more wallets.
Just like you, hackers are also interested in cryptos, especially during bull markets.
Keep an eye on the URL, SSL status (should be https:// before the URL), the network you are on. Don’t use over wireless networks such as Wi-Fi or mobile data network.
- Use trusted and well known Bitcoin wallets
- Securely store and backup your wallet credentials
- Consider using Hardware wallets to protect your assets
On top of all these, you are the best security, so mind your actions especially your online behavior.
Summing all that up…
There are numerous factors, as shown above, that have an influence on the price of Bitcoin. Keeping these in mind will help you make more accurate, future predictions.
Things like government regulations, publicity in the media, the Bitcoin community, and changes to the Bitcoin technology are what influence the supply and demand among other factors.
The current market sentiment shows that Bitcoin is more alive than ever and hopefully will stay that way.
Consequently, after considering all these factors, it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will go up and reach its prime at some point. It’s difficult to give you an exact price or date but it will very likely happen sooner than later.
So, after reading this article, let us know what you think – will Bitcoin go up again?
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